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Development of Simplified Framework For Reliability Analysis Of Flexible Pavement Using Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide

Karki, Aashis
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=akron1501329755239314

Abstract Details

2017, Master of Science, University of Akron, Civil Engineering.
Pavement design is a crucial task in the design of roadway structure. In the design stage, a number of factors affecting the design must be carefully studied to make the design last the required service period. For pavement design, we have come from AASTHO Pavement Design Guide to now Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) The mechanistic-empirical pavement design guide (MEPDG) requires a considerable amount of computational effort and training for pavement engineers. The design parameters used in MEPDG, such as structure, material properties, traffic, and environmental conditions, involve some level of uncertainty that may lead to challenges in the decision-making process. This study is devoted to developing an efficient reliability-based pavement design procedure, which includes the following three components: 1) mechanics-based layered elastic analysis for computing the tensile strain and the compressive strain within the pavement structure, 2) MEPDG empirical models for predicting fatigue life and rutting life, 3) first-order reliability method (FORM) implemented in a spreadsheet for estimating the probability of pavement failure, 4) validation of FORM reliability estimates by comparison to Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). A three-layered pavement structure has been analyzed for fatigue and rutting failure of the hot mix asphalt layer (HMA) only. The three-layered pavement structure consists of HMA layer, granular base layer, and subgrade. Layered elastic analysis has been carried out using MulitSmart3D for the calculation the tensile and compressive strain in the HMA layer. A second-order response surface was created for prediction of strains. Using the empirical models from MEPDG, the strain values were then used for calculating of rutting and fatigue life. With comparison to design traffic value, the failure of probability (Pf) was calculated for each rutting and fatigue failure. Reliability analysis of the pavement structure was carried out to observed the effects of variation of input parameters to the overall pavement life and Pf. A spreadsheet based FORM was used for the estimation of the Pf. And then the reliability estimates from FORM were validated using Monte Carlo simulation. With the results from spreadsheet based FORM, the parameters that are most sensitive to the Pf was found to be stiffness of HMA layer, base layer, and thickness of HMA layer. The Pf estimates from FORM were very close that with from MCS. Thus, the proposed procedure was shown to be able to efficiently estimate the probability of pavement failure without requiring the engineers to have a detailed knowledge of theoretical mechanics and reliability simulations.
Zhe Luo, Dr. (Advisor)
Ernian Pan, Dr. (Committee Member)
Ala R. Abbas, Dr. (Committee Member)
81 p.
Civil Engineering
MEPDG; flexible pavement; fatigue; rutting; FORM; MCS

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Karki, A. (2017). Development of Simplified Framework For Reliability Analysis Of Flexible Pavement Using Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide [Master's thesis, University of Akron]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=akron1501329755239314

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Karki, Aashis. Development of Simplified Framework For Reliability Analysis Of Flexible Pavement Using Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide. 2017. University of Akron, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=akron1501329755239314.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Karki, Aashis. "Development of Simplified Framework For Reliability Analysis Of Flexible Pavement Using Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide." Master's thesis, University of Akron, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=akron1501329755239314

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

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This open access ETD is published by University of Akron and OhioLINK.