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Population Viability Analysis of the Bule-Throated Macaw (Ara glaucogularis) Using Individual-Based and Cohort-Based PVA Programs

Strem Cuellar, Rosa Ines
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1219175814

Abstract Details

2008, Master of Science (MS), Bowling Green State University, Biological Sciences.
In this study, a demographic model was developed to perform a population viability analysis (PVA) of the Blue-throated Macaw (Ara glaucogularis), a critically endangered species endemic to Bolivia. PVA simulations were run using individual-based (VORTEX 9.72) and cohort-based (RAMAS GIS 4.0) programs. A baseline simulation allowed the assessment of the status of the species based on estimates of extinction risk and population declines under current conditions of abundance and habitat availability over the next 50 years. The role of multiple demographic, environmental, and anthropogenic parameters was evaluated to assess changes affecting population declines and extinction risk. The baseline simulation showed that the Blue-throated Macaw has a relatively low probability of extinction during the next fifty years, but the consistent declines in abundance, small population size, and the low population growth rates make this species highly vulnerable to any change or threat. Elasticity analysis of the baseline simulation and sensitivity analysis of changes in different demographic parameters demonstrated that increases in adult mortality had the greatest effect on population growth rate and extinction risk. Simulations of anthropogenic impacts showed that small increases in habitat loss (2%) and population harvesting (3%) had drastic effects on population decline. Comparison of PVA outcomes from VORTEX and RAMAS GIS were consistent with previous studies, showing that individual-based programs like VORTEX tend to be more conservative, predicting not only higher probabilities of extinction but lower population growth rates than the cohort-based program RAMAS GIS. Results from this study emphasize the need for conservation actions aimed at protecting breeding individuals (decreasing adult mortality), preventing poaching activities, and promoting the conservation of available habitat (particularly for nesting sites). Active conservation strategies will be essential for the long-term persistence of this species.
Juan L. Bouzat, PhD (Advisor)
Karen V. Root, PhD (Committee Member)
M. Gabriela Bidart-Bouzat, PhD (Committee Member)
88 p.
Animals; Biology; Ecology; Zoology
RAMAS GIS; BLUE-THROATED MACAW; GIS; extinction

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Strem Cuellar, R. I. (2008). Population Viability Analysis of the Bule-Throated Macaw (Ara glaucogularis) Using Individual-Based and Cohort-Based PVA Programs [Master's thesis, Bowling Green State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1219175814

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Strem Cuellar, Rosa. Population Viability Analysis of the Bule-Throated Macaw (Ara glaucogularis) Using Individual-Based and Cohort-Based PVA Programs. 2008. Bowling Green State University, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1219175814.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Strem Cuellar, Rosa. "Population Viability Analysis of the Bule-Throated Macaw (Ara glaucogularis) Using Individual-Based and Cohort-Based PVA Programs." Master's thesis, Bowling Green State University, 2008. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1219175814

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

bgsu1219175814
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© 2008, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by Bowling Green State University and OhioLINK.