Skip to Main Content
 

Global Search Box

 
 
 

ETD Abstract Container

Abstract Header

Strategic Inference of Means and Variances: An Investigation of Adult and Child Numerical Prediction

Cravalho, Patrick F
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=kent1447163486

Abstract Details

2015, PHD, Kent State University, College of Education, Health and Human Services / School of Lifespan Development and Educational Sciences.
Everyday we come across the need to make predictions based on sets of numbers. For example, thinking about past prices of gas to estimate how much an upcoming fill up will cost. Prediction is important to study because it represents an essential skill in reasoning with numbers in context, which is a specific component in the Common Core Mathematics Standards. However, little is known about the cognitive mechanisms underlying prediction or how to provide effective instruction. Three experiments investigated the strategies that adults and 4th grade children use to make predictions from sets of four, six, or eight numbers. They were told that each number in each set represented the distance a batter hit a baseball. Then after seeing each set for a limited amount of time, they were asked to predict how far the batter would hit the next baseball. It was hypothesized that predictions would reflect the set means. Adults’ predictions were closer to the set means than children’s predictions, although this difference was not statistically significant. Trying to average the set numbers, which seemed to be the most effective strategy, was the strategy most used by adults. Conversely, children used other strategies more often than averaging and exhibiting a more rudimentary understanding and use of averaging strategies. However, the fact that children employed inexact averaging strategies, without the aid of prior averaging instruction, provides evidence that intuitive number approximation may extend to estimating predictions.
Bradley Morris, PhD (Committee Chair)
173 p.
Educational Psychology
Numerical Cognition, Prediction, Educational Psychology, Elementary Education

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Cravalho, P. F. (2015). Strategic Inference of Means and Variances: An Investigation of Adult and Child Numerical Prediction [Doctoral dissertation, Kent State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=kent1447163486

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Cravalho, Patrick. Strategic Inference of Means and Variances: An Investigation of Adult and Child Numerical Prediction. 2015. Kent State University, Doctoral dissertation. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=kent1447163486.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Cravalho, Patrick. "Strategic Inference of Means and Variances: An Investigation of Adult and Child Numerical Prediction." Doctoral dissertation, Kent State University, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=kent1447163486

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

kent1447163486
415
© 2015, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by Kent State University and OhioLINK.