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A variance reduction technique for production cost simulation

Wise, Michael Anthony

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1989, Master of Science (MS), Ohio University, Electrical Engineering & Computer Science (Engineering and Technology).

The problem of accurately modeling the random behavior of electric power generation is formidable because the amount of information required creates a terrific computational burden. The Booth-Baleriaux convolution technique, also called the load duration curve (LDC) method, was introduced in the late 1960s to mitigate some of this burden. Before that time, Monte Carlo or derating techniques were in use. Despite numerous modeling difficulties, the Booth-Baleriaux method is currently, for long range planning applications, the most widely accepted electric power production simulation approach in the United States.

There are three parts to this paper. The first part briefly describes the LDC method and highlights its pitfalls. It emphasizes the need to use chronological Monte Carlo methods (which are also described briefly). Second, a variance reduction technique to foster rapid convergence of cost statistics in Monte Carlo studies is developed. Finally, a comparison study using the General Electric Company's MAPS chronological (Monte Carlo) software is analyzed. The two techniques are contrasted to show the virtues of Monte Carlo simulation and variance reduction.

The purpose of this variance reduction technique is twofold. First, it assures that each trial is a representative (i.e., most likely) outage pattern of the system being studied. Second, since less samples remain, it results in faster convergence (fewer simulations) of results. The benefits of using variance reduction with Monte Carlo include accurate modeling and a significant reduction in computational effort.

Brian Manhire (Advisor)
66 p.

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Wise, M. A. (1989). A variance reduction technique for production cost simulation [Master's thesis, Ohio University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1182181023

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Wise, Michael. A variance reduction technique for production cost simulation. 1989. Ohio University, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1182181023.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Wise, Michael. "A variance reduction technique for production cost simulation." Master's thesis, Ohio University, 1989. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1182181023

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)