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Electoral behavior in U.S. senate elections, a simultaneous choice model

Harpuder, Brian Eric
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1069347453

Abstract Details

2003, Doctor of Philosophy, Ohio State University, Political Science.
The turnout decision of citizens has traditionally been analyzed separately from the two-party vote decision of citizens. The presumption has been that citizens decide if they are going to vote, and then decide for which candidate to vote. In the present research, the two decisions are placed into a simultaneous choice framework, which presumes that the decisions of turnout and candidate choice are made jointly, implying that abstention is a vote for none-of-the-above. This research shows the effects of the simultaneous choice model with regard to understudied U.S. Senate elections using data gathered thru the Senate Election Studies from 1988-1992. The research shows that levels of turnout in Senate elections are not equally distributed across the various demographic sectors of society. Efforts by campaigns to target particular constituencies should result in a higher probability of citizens casting a vote for the candidate. With respect to evaluations of the economy and personal finances the research clearly shows support for the angry voter hypothesis. Citizens who are dissatisfied with the state of the national economy, angry voters, are more likely to turnout than those who are satisfied. Their dissatisfaction is expressed toward incumbents because they become more likely to vote for the challenging party. Personal financial evaluations are also shown to have a limited impact on electoral behavior. Contrary to some previous research, substantive policy preferences are shown to affect electoral behavior in Senate elections. The findings clearly suggest the campaigns that understand short-term forces can utilize them to produce mobilization. The research shows that use of self-reported media exposure variables can allow for a better understanding of electoral behavior. Citizens who are exposed to candidates via radio or magazines are more likely to vote for the candidate they had read or heard about. The greater their interest and exposure, the more likely it is that a citizen will vote. Overall, the research provides political scientists with an alternative understanding of how electoral decisions are made. Readers will develop an understanding of the factors that influence turnout and mobilization for specific candidates.
Janet Box-Steffensmeier (Advisor)
226 p.
Political Science, General
Turnout; Senate Elections; Voting Behavior; Electoral Behavior; Congressional Elections; Simultaneous choice; U.S. Senate

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Harpuder, B. E. (2003). Electoral behavior in U.S. senate elections, a simultaneous choice model [Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1069347453

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Harpuder, Brian. Electoral behavior in U.S. senate elections, a simultaneous choice model. 2003. Ohio State University, Doctoral dissertation. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1069347453.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Harpuder, Brian. "Electoral behavior in U.S. senate elections, a simultaneous choice model." Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University, 2003. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1069347453

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1069347453
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© 2003, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by The Ohio State University and OhioLINK.