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A statistical model to forecast short-term Atlantic hurricane intensity

Law, Kevin T
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1149013191

Abstract Details

2006, Doctor of Philosophy, Ohio State University, Atmospheric Sciences.
The accuracy of hurricane intensity forecasts has lagged the accuracy of hurricane track forecasts thereby creating a need for improvement. Many models struggle capturing the rapid intensification period and identifying when it will occur which causes a large amount of error in the intensity forecasts. The method described in this paper uses a discriminant function analysis (DFA) to help identify how intense the tropical cyclone will become and also how close it is to the rapid intensification period. Identifying the proximity to the rapid intensification period is a key factor in improving the intensity forecasts. Based upon the intensity and its proximity to its rapid intensification period, as selected by the DFA, an appropriate regression model is applied to forecast the 24-hour and 6-hour pressure reduction and wind speed increase. Other statistical intensity models apply the same regression model throughout the entire lifecycle of the tropical cyclone. This model relies on the premise that factors which cause intensification affect the tropical cyclone differently throughout its life cycle. Therefore, by using the DFA, different stages in its life cycle are identified, which allows the regression model to use the most significant variables at the particular stage. They are shown to improve the intensity forecasts at the stages leading up to and during the rapid intensification, which happen to be the most difficult stages to predict. The forecasts were validated with 13 independent case studies and compared with the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts.
Jay Hobgood (Advisor)
263 p.
Physics, Atmospheric Science
statistical model; atlantic hurricane intensity

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Law, K. T. (2006). A statistical model to forecast short-term Atlantic hurricane intensity [Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1149013191

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Law, Kevin. A statistical model to forecast short-term Atlantic hurricane intensity. 2006. Ohio State University, Doctoral dissertation. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1149013191.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Law, Kevin. "A statistical model to forecast short-term Atlantic hurricane intensity." Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University, 2006. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1149013191

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1149013191
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© 2006, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by The Ohio State University and OhioLINK.