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When You are Confident that You are Wrong: Response Reversals and the Expanded Poisson Race Model

Potter, Kevin Whitman
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1321454142

Abstract Details

2011, Master of Arts, Ohio State University, Psychology.
There exist several mathematical models that can explain choice, confidence, and reaction time in the context of simple decision making. The assumptions these models make about the accumulation of evidence used in making a decision also have implications for response reversals. This project used the expanded judgment task to test the expanded Poisson race model's predictions of the frequency of response reversals. For the first experiment, subjects had to decide between two decks of red and green cards, one of which was predominantly red while the other was predominantly green. Subjects viewed sequences of 1, 3, or 5 cards randomly drawn from one the decks, made a decision, and then viewed a further 2, 4, or 6 cards and made a confidence judgment in which they had the opportunity to reverse their decision. The results found that, qualitatively, the model fit the trends of the empirical data but tended to underestimate the average number of reversals. To examine whether the deviations from the model were due to order effects, a second experiment was run in which subjects only viewed 3 cards initially and 2 cards in the end, but every possible order of red and green cards was presented. However, no significant order effects were observed, providing support for the model's assumption that the serial position of a card had no impact on a subject's decision. Recommendations are given for the modification of the expanded Poisson race model to better handle the variability expressed in the data, future experiments are suggested to help further determine the extent of order effects in the tasks, and finally, potential applications with response reversals in competitive model selection are discussed.
Trisha Van Zandt, PhD (Advisor)
Roger Ratcliff, PhD (Committee Member)
Thomas Nygren, PhD (Committee Member)
86 p.
Quantitative Psychology
response reversal; sequential sampling model; simple choice; confidence judgments

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Potter, K. W. (2011). When You are Confident that You are Wrong: Response Reversals and the Expanded Poisson Race Model [Master's thesis, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1321454142

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Potter, Kevin. When You are Confident that You are Wrong: Response Reversals and the Expanded Poisson Race Model. 2011. Ohio State University, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1321454142.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Potter, Kevin. "When You are Confident that You are Wrong: Response Reversals and the Expanded Poisson Race Model." Master's thesis, Ohio State University, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1321454142

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1321454142
477
© 2011, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by The Ohio State University and OhioLINK.