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Predicting the Predominant Winter Flight Category in Central Ohio Using ENSO Indices

Frederick, Meredith A.
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1354301630

Abstract Details

2012, Master of Science, Ohio State University, Atmospheric Sciences.
The links between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation, temperature, and extratropical cyclone activity in the Ohio River Valley have been well-studied and documented. However, links with ENSO and flight category have hardly been examined. A flight category is a specific set of conditions defined by ceiling heights and visibility that governs aviation operations. There are three flight categories that are commonly used: Visual Flight Rules (VFR); Marginal Visual Flight Rules (MVFR); and Instrument Flight Rules (IFR). This study aims to see if those teleconnections between ENSO and various atmospheric effects extend northward into Central Ohio with enough strength to be able to be used to predict the predominant winter flight category for the region. This was accomplished by gathering 30 years of METAR data for the months of January, February, and March from three sites: The Ohio State University Airport (KOSU), Port Columbus International Airport (KCMH), and Tampa International Airport (KTPA) and comparing that data with various ENSO indices. The 30 years of METAR data were averaged for each year and month and compared with six commonly-used ENSO indices: Niño-1+2; Niño-3; Niño-3.4; Niño-4; MEI; and SOI. A regression analysis was used to gather p-values and slopes for each combination of site, month, flight category, and index. Few combinations resulted in overwhelmingly consistent results for the Central Ohio region, but a few possible relationships existed for MVFR and VFR conditions, especially when using the Niño-3 index. Data from KTPA correlated much more strongly with the various ENSO indices and month combinations, almost exclusively when looking at MVFR conditions. Niño-3 responded most closely with KTPA. The SOI also responded with KTPA, but only when looking at the three-month average dataset, not during individual months.
Jay Hobgood, PhD (Advisor)
Jeffery Rogers, Phd (Committee Member)
301 p.
Meteorology; Transportation; Transportation Planning
Atmospheric Science; VFR; MVFR; IFR; Aviation; Flight Category; ENSO; Southern Oscillation; Ohio; Central Ohio; El Ni&241; o; Climatology; Forecasting; Flying

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Frederick, M. A. (2012). Predicting the Predominant Winter Flight Category in Central Ohio Using ENSO Indices [Master's thesis, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1354301630

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Frederick, Meredith. Predicting the Predominant Winter Flight Category in Central Ohio Using ENSO Indices. 2012. Ohio State University, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1354301630.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Frederick, Meredith. "Predicting the Predominant Winter Flight Category in Central Ohio Using ENSO Indices." Master's thesis, Ohio State University, 2012. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1354301630

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1354301630
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© 2012, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by The Ohio State University and OhioLINK.