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Glover MS Thesis.pdf (2.14 MB)

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A Mathematical Model of the 2014 Ohio Measles Outbreak to Assess the Effectiveness of the Public Health Response

Glover, Catherine
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1429878067

Abstract Details

2015, Master of Mathematical Sciences, Ohio State University, Mathematics.
Measles is a highly contagious viral illness that was declared eliminated from the United States in 2000 after decades of focused vaccination campaigns. However, pockets of measles-susceptible individuals exist across the United States that are at high risk for a measles outbreak should the virus be imported. In early 2014, an Amish individual traveled to the Philippines for aid work and returned to the largely unvaccinated and susceptible Ohio Amish community infected with the measles virus. The resultant outbreak was the largest measles outbreak in the United States in 20 years. The Ohio Department of Health quickly set a mass vaccination campaign into motion with the goal of immunizing susceptible Amish individuals and stopping the virus in its tracks. Here we develop a mathematical model of the measles outbreak in Knox County, Ohio, using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model implemented with the stochastic Gillespie algorithm. Using this model, we investigate the effectiveness of the public health vaccination campaign. Model results suggest higher probabilities of worse outcomes in the form of more cases and longer outbreaks when vaccination is removed or delayed, suggesting the positive utility of vaccination as a public health intervention in the Knox County Amish community.
Joseph Tien (Advisor)
Brian Fowler (Committee Member)
Kurt Stevenson (Committee Member)
90 p.
Epidemiology; Mathematics; Microbiology

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Glover, C. (2015). A Mathematical Model of the 2014 Ohio Measles Outbreak to Assess the Effectiveness of the Public Health Response [Master's thesis, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1429878067

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Glover, Catherine. A Mathematical Model of the 2014 Ohio Measles Outbreak to Assess the Effectiveness of the Public Health Response. 2015. Ohio State University, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1429878067.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Glover, Catherine. "A Mathematical Model of the 2014 Ohio Measles Outbreak to Assess the Effectiveness of the Public Health Response." Master's thesis, Ohio State University, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1429878067

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1429878067
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This open access ETD is published by The Ohio State University and OhioLINK.