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Understanding the Role of Health Care Workers in a Trade-off Model between Contact and Transmission for Ebola Virus Disease

Martinez-Soto, Eduan E.
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1467993935

Abstract Details

2016, Master of Mathematical Sciences, Ohio State University, Mathematics.
During 2014 in West Africa, Ebola virus disease (EVD) was a serious public health concern and risk where the most deadly outbreak occurred since the initial epidemic in 1976 and where health care workers (HCWs) population suffered in a dramatic way. EVD transmission is possible through the movement of infected individuals where infection is classified as asymptomatic or severe. This could imply that as symptoms severity increase, individuals with severe infections may be unable to move as much and therefore contacts with other individuals will decrease. This involves a trade-off between contact and probability of transmission given contact in the general population (non-HCWs population). In contrast, HCWs population do not experience the same trade-off as the general population, because as symptom severity becomes greater, contacts with HCWs will increase. A mathematical model was developed in order to study this scenario and also to interpret the effect of the trade-off involving both populations by analyzing the basic reproductive number R0 as a function of the probability of transmission given contact. It was found that R0 in the model represents the contribution of the general population and the contribution of the HCWs population regarding the new cases of EVD. Moreover, sufficient conditions were determined in order to acquire an increasing monotone function of the probability of transmission given contact including intermediate ranges for relative transmissibility parameters. Finally, performing parameter estimation of the model it was possible to estimate the initial growth rate of an epidemic r using the cumulative incidence data from 2014 that corresponds to the outbreak. Additionally, R0 was estimated from r providing a match between the data, literature, and the deterministic model. This could help to interpret in a clean way how much the contribution in disease transmission from HCWs during the 2014 Ebola outbreak was, how fast the EVD outbreak grew, and how to be prepared for another catastrophic outbreak with the necessary intervention capacity and adequate measurements for control.
Joseph Tien (Advisor)
Adriana Dawes (Committee Member)
80 p.
Epidemiology; Mathematics
Ebola Virus Disease; Health Care Workers; Models of Infectious Disease Dynamics; Outbreak; Symptom Severity; Trade-off; West Africa

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Martinez-Soto, E. E. (2016). Understanding the Role of Health Care Workers in a Trade-off Model between Contact and Transmission for Ebola Virus Disease [Master's thesis, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1467993935

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Martinez-Soto, Eduan . Understanding the Role of Health Care Workers in a Trade-off Model between Contact and Transmission for Ebola Virus Disease. 2016. Ohio State University, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1467993935.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Martinez-Soto, Eduan . "Understanding the Role of Health Care Workers in a Trade-off Model between Contact and Transmission for Ebola Virus Disease." Master's thesis, Ohio State University, 2016. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1467993935

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1467993935
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