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Impacts of Stationarity Assumption in Floodplain Management: Case Studies

Palmer, Laura Michelle
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1483386481824778

Abstract Details

2017, Master of Science, Ohio State University, Civil Engineering.
Peak flow calculation methods utilized in floodplain management have evolved to be reliant on historical data. This study examines the validity of predicted probability of flood events dependence on stationarity by tracking trends in stream gage data and analyzing the impact of data subsets on floodplains. Trends in the 100-year event in the Scioto River, Mad River and Little Darby Creek watersheds were tracked by analyzing subsets of available stream gage data with the methodology presented by the Water Resources Council in Bulletin 17B. The 100-year event at each site was also calculated using regression equations. The results were compared to historical trends in annual precipitation data and land use changes in Ohio. Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Water Surface Profile (HEC-2) data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency was used to recreate models from Flood Insurance Studies in Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS ) for selected flood zones for along each channel. Results were exported to Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with HEC-GeoRAS to visualize the differences in resulting floodplains. Floodplain widths, inundated areas and impacted properties were compared for each flow. In most locations, the calculated 100-year event was found to decrease as more recent data was used in or more historic data was removed from the flow analysis. This is exemplified by the 100-year event calculated with only data between 1980 and 2010 being calculated to be over 50% less than the 100-year event calculated with over 100 years of historic data at the main test site along the Scioto and Mad River. Some exceptions to this were found at some gages along the Mad River. The differences directly translated into discrepancies in floodplain widths, areas and impacted properties.
Gajan Sivandran (Advisor)
Kubatko Ethan (Advisor)
Durand Michael (Committee Member)
401 p.
Civil Engineering; Climate Change; Environmental Engineering; Water Resource Management
Stationarity Peak Flow Bulletin 17B Regression Equations Scioto

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Palmer, L. M. (2017). Impacts of Stationarity Assumption in Floodplain Management: Case Studies [Master's thesis, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1483386481824778

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Palmer, Laura. Impacts of Stationarity Assumption in Floodplain Management: Case Studies. 2017. Ohio State University, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1483386481824778.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Palmer, Laura. "Impacts of Stationarity Assumption in Floodplain Management: Case Studies." Master's thesis, Ohio State University, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1483386481824778

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1483386481824778
189
© 2017, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by The Ohio State University and OhioLINK.