Skip to Main Content
 

Global Search Box

 
 
 
 

Files

File List


Yousef - Dissertation.pdf (5.69 MB)

ETD Abstract Container

Abstract Header

Three Essays on the Economic Causes of Conflict

Yousef, Sahar Farid
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0494-3060
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1606771186493627

Abstract Details

2020, Doctor of Philosophy, Ohio State University, Agricultural, Environmental and Developmental Economics.
There are many causes of conflict: religious, ideological, political, and economic. In this dissertation, I focus on a subset of the economic factors that can instigate conflicts, such as water scarcity and food insecurity, and those that can mitigate it, like trade liberalization or adding a trade component to peace agreements. In the first essay, I examine the relationship between water scarcity and interstate conflict between upstream and downstream riparian countries. I develop a game-theoretic model that incorporates the river sharing game and a conflict model. I use backward induction to find the probability of either riparian state using force as a function of its scarcity level. I use the complementary log-log model to test the reduced-form probability functions using AQUASTAT water availability data, and the Militarized Interstate Disputes dataset from the Correlates of War Project. I find that water scarcity induces hegemon, downstream countries to initiate conflict against their upstream co-riparian and that a water-scarce upstream country is more likely than a water-abundant upstream country to respond by force. In the second essay, I examine whether experiencing a drought exacerbates the effect of an increase in staple food prices on urban and rural social unrest in Africa and whether liberalizing trade in staple foods mitigates this effect. I use an instrumental variable model to study the impact on social unrest of a change in domestic food prices while experiencing a drought with and without trade liberalization. I use data on anti-government demonstrations from the Social Conflict Analysis Database (SCAD) along with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the domestic and international staple food prices from the FAO, and tariff data from UNCTAD. I find that an increase in staple food prices while experiencing drought increases social unrest in urban areas and reduces it in rural areas; liberalizing trade in staple foods reduces both effects. In the third essay, I examine whether increasing trade interdependence as part of a peace agreement reduces the likelihood of conflict between two countries that share a history of conflict over territory. I develop a game-theoretic model that incorporates the protection-for-sale model and a conflict model to investigate how interest groups affect their government’s foreign policy. From the game’s subgame perfect equilibrium, I find that signing a free trade agreement minimizes conflict when the welfare of export-oriented groups and the aggregate welfare of the society are maximized under a free-trade agreement with the rival country. I test this result empirically using the Peace Agreements dataset from UCDP, the militarized interstate disputes from the Correlates of War Project, and the gravity dataset from CEPII. I find empirical support for the hypothesis that signing a free trade agreement, along with a peace agreement, minimizes interstate conflicts when export-oriented groups and consumers are in favor of the free trade agreement with the rival country.
Ian Sheldon (Advisor)
Zoë Plakias (Committee Member)
Leah Bevis (Committee Member)
399 p.
Agricultural Economics; Environmental Economics
interstate conflict; social unrest; water-scarcity; upstream-downstream dyads; river sharing game; staple food prices; food insecurity; trade liberalization; territorial conflict; free-trade agreements; peace agreements; subgame perfect equilibrium;

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Yousef, S. F. (2020). Three Essays on the Economic Causes of Conflict [Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1606771186493627

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Yousef, Sahar. Three Essays on the Economic Causes of Conflict. 2020. Ohio State University, Doctoral dissertation. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1606771186493627.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Yousef, Sahar. "Three Essays on the Economic Causes of Conflict." Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1606771186493627

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1606771186493627
215
© 2020, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by The Ohio State University and OhioLINK.