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Examination of Sensitivity of Land Use Parameters and Population on the Performance of the AERMOD Model for an Urban Area

Bhardwaj, Kanwar S
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1134085634

Abstract Details

2005, Master of Science, University of Toledo, Civil Engineering.
Many studies reported in the literature discuss the work performance of the USEPA’s AERMOD model in predicting ground level concentrations when applied to an urban area. This may be due to sensitivity of land use parameters and population inputs while computing concentration. At present, the USEPA provides very little guidance on specifying these inputs. The purpose of this study is to find out the direction for specifying these parameters using the modeling results for Lucas County. The sensitivity of land use parameters, population, and rural/urban option on the ground level concentrations for Lucas County for three years was determined. Emission inventory and monitoring data of Lucas County were used from 1990 -1992. Land Analysis was done using ARC MAP on the meteorological and source site to find the exact land use parameters. The meteorological pre-processor (AERMET) requires the input of site-specific land use parameters (albedo, Bowen ratio and surface roughness) for urban and rural areas and the ground level concentration calculation using AERMOD requires additional geophysical input parameters such as population and a single value of urban surface roughness length of the source site. Several realistic scenarios based on these inputs were constructed to examine the sensitivity of input on predicted concentrations. The emphasis was placed on regulatory/engineering design concentration values used by professionals. The analysis showed that the predicted concentration results will be closest to the observed concentrations values when the AERMET is run using the twelve sectors’ land use parameter values around three kilometer at the meteorological site. The analysis also showed that the AERMOD model is highly sensitive to the input population for 1-hour and 3-hour averaging periods. There was less impact in the variation in predicted concentrations for annual averaging period and 24-hr averaging period with respect to population specification of the study area. The results and the statistical parameters indicate that the input of population taken around the major sources will likely provide predicted results closer to observed values. A hypothetical sensitivity analysis was also conducted to study the effect of rural and urban option on the ground level concentrations due to change in surface roughness, albedo, Bowen ration and population. The results show that for urban area, the most sensitive parameter is surface roughness. There is negligible effect on ground level concentrations with respect to albedo and Bowen ratio for all averaging times. However, for rural option, apart from surface roughness having an impact on concentrations, the AERMOD model is also sensitive to albedo and Bowen ratio.
Ashok Kumar (Advisor)
159 p.
Engineering, Civil
Sensitivity; AERMOD; AERMET; Land use parameter; Albedo; Bowen ratio; Surface Roughness; Population Input

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Bhardwaj, K. S. (2005). Examination of Sensitivity of Land Use Parameters and Population on the Performance of the AERMOD Model for an Urban Area [Master's thesis, University of Toledo]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1134085634

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Bhardwaj, Kanwar. Examination of Sensitivity of Land Use Parameters and Population on the Performance of the AERMOD Model for an Urban Area. 2005. University of Toledo, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1134085634.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Bhardwaj, Kanwar. "Examination of Sensitivity of Land Use Parameters and Population on the Performance of the AERMOD Model for an Urban Area." Master's thesis, University of Toledo, 2005. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1134085634

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

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© 2005, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by University of Toledo and OhioLINK.