The Taiwan Strait is a global hot spot that has the potential to trigger a war between nuclear powers. Over the past 59 years, the political relationship between Taiwan and mainland China has been characterized by hostility and confrontation. Since Ma Ying-jeou won Taiwan’s presidential election in March 2008, however, cross-Strait relations have been improved dramatically. Beijing and Taipei resumed semi-official talks after a nine years suspension. They also launched direct flights and shipping and mail services across the Taiwan Strait, which had not existed since 1949.
What caused “the surge of peace” in the relationship between the two rivals? According to Kantian peace theory, democracy, economic interdependence, and joint membership in international organizations lead to a reduction of conflict between states. This study applies the Kantian hypotheses to the Taiwan Strait case and examines cross-Strait relations from 1987-2008. I find that cross-Strait trade and investment have made a significant contribution to the alleviation of the levels of tension between Taiwan and mainland China. There is mixed effect of democracy. Taiwan’s high level of democracy has helped maintain the cross-Strait status quo and prevent the outbreak of war; however, it has also been a cause of tension and made unification with the mainland more difficult. Finally, due to the limited number of joint memberships shared by the ROC and PRC, the effect of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) on cross-Strait relations is insignificant. In fact, Taiwan’s pursuit of membership in IGOs and China’s blocking of those efforts have created conflicts between the two sides.
My analysis demonstrates that Kant’s peace theory is valuable in explaining how economic interdependence has reduced tension across the Taiwan Strait. However, I did not find a positive relation between democracy, joint membership in IGOs and the improvement of the PRC-ROC relations. Therefore, Kantian peace theory’s relevance for the Taiwan Strait conflict is limited.