Pavement management is a process that helps to maintain a pavement network in a safe and serviceable condition in a cost effective manner. A key component of an effective pavement management system is its ability to predict the remaining service life of pavements. Remaining service life of pavements can be predicted using the present pavement condition and the latest rehabilitation action performed on that particular pavement. Survival curves are often developed to obtain remaining service life of a pavement family. The objectives of this study are to determine the average service life of pavements and to predict their remaining service life. Remaining Service Life is defined as the projected number of years until rehabilitation is required.
The pavement condition data in the form of Pavement Condition Rating (PCR) were used to develop Kaplan-Meier survival curves for different PCR thresholds. PCR 60 was considered as the terminal condition and the average service life of pavement network was calculated as the area under PCR 60 survival curve. Derived performance curves for all the survival probabilities were developed between pavement age and PCR using the Weibull approximation of the Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Derived performance curves were employed to determine the remaining service life of individual pavements based on current age and PCR. PCR curves were also developed for individual PCR thresholds between RSL and pavement age by using the Weibull approximation of the Kaplan-Meier survival curves to better understand the relationship between RSL, PCR and pavement age. Average service life of the pavement network and remaining service life of individual pavements obtained from this study can be used to assist in pavement rehabilitation decision making and budget allocation.