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Climate Impacts on Nutrient Loading in Lake Erie

Gentner, Tiffany M
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1525281661690821

Abstract Details

2018, Master of Science, University of Toledo, Geology.
The Maumee Watershed, the largest of the Great Lakes drainages, is located in NW Ohio, and is comprised of 70% agricultural land. In an effort to increase crop yields, fertilizer containing phosphorous (P) and nitrogen (N) are applied to the agricultural land. During large rain events or melt off periods these nutrients are mobilized, ultimately making their way to Lake Erie. Anthropogenic nutrient loading and increased water temperature allow for cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (HABs) to prosper. Climate change is expected to increase both average temperature and precipitation events, potentially changing nutrient loading from runoff and influencing an increase in HABs. Best management practices (BMPs) have been utilized on agricultural land to help reduce and slow nutrient runoff. As HABs are detrimental to human health, understanding how climate change and BMPs interact to reduce nutrient loading is essential. A target reduction of 40% dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) nine years out of ten was established by the Ohio Phosphorus Task Force, in an effort to reduce HAB occurrences. To investigate how climate change and BMPs interact, three climate models, MIROC, MRI, and CNRM, and a baseline scenario and two BMPs are run in a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of the Maumee Watershed. MIROC predicts the warmest and driest climate amongst the three climate models, while MRI foresees the coolest and wettest climate. MIROC and MRI both anticipate a decrease in P loading on average, with some decreases in P offset by climate change for MRI. Finally, CNRM anticipates a mild increase in temperature and precipitation, but increases P loading overall. Based on similar hindcast results to NOAA’s measured data it is likely that CNRM is the most realistic climate model, but is inconclusive. BMPs are an effective practice in reducing P loading as scenario 2 and scenario 3 reduce P in reference to baseline management. More aggressive management will need to be implemented to help constrain algal growth in the future.
Richard Becker (Committee Chair)
Kevin Czajkowski (Committee Member)
James Martin-Hayden (Committee Member)
78 p.
Climate Change; Environmental Geology
Climate change; BMP; SWAT; Flow; Nutrient; Lake Erie; CMIP5

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Gentner, T. M. (2018). Climate Impacts on Nutrient Loading in Lake Erie [Master's thesis, University of Toledo]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1525281661690821

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Gentner, Tiffany. Climate Impacts on Nutrient Loading in Lake Erie. 2018. University of Toledo, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1525281661690821.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Gentner, Tiffany. "Climate Impacts on Nutrient Loading in Lake Erie." Master's thesis, University of Toledo, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1525281661690821

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

toledo1525281661690821
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This open access ETD is published by University of Toledo and OhioLINK.