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Spatial Dynamics: Theory and Methods with Application to the U.S. Economy

Chohaney, Michael L
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo152541802692485

Abstract Details

2018, Doctor of Philosophy, University of Toledo, Spatially Integrated Social Science.
This dissertation is concerned with the spatial dynamics of the U.S. economy. Spatial dynamics is a termcoined in this dissertation to define the geo-spatial aspects of an observed natural process, particularly changes in its spatial relations over time. Geographic inquiry considering spatial dynamics requires an unassuming examination of spatial panel data, an approach that facilitates the discovery of new regularities and tendencies in spatial data and necessitates the development of more flexible tools and methods tailored to the peculiarities of the observed natural process. This dissertation demonstrates the practicality of spatial dynamics as a promising framework with the discovery, description, and analysis of two spatial economic paradoxes, which impelled the creation of several new tools and methods. The dissertation is composed of three essays linked by the exploration and analysis of the spatial dynamics of the U.S. economy, specifically its metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The first essay develops two new statistics that quantify physical and human capital accumulation in MSAs. These statistics are used to calculate the classical production function and derive the percent contribution of physical and human capital to average establishment size and Gross Domestic Product by MSA (MGDP). The results conformtomacroeconomic expectations and are spatially distributed according to the familiar economic geography of the United States, rendering the statistics usefulfor spatial economic analysis. The second essay explores the observation that MGDP growth rates are spatially clustered and MGDP levels are uniformly distributed (i.e., exhibit no spatial correlation). This finding is paradoxical because the level of economic activity is the aggregation of previous growth patterns and, if economic growth in the spatial economy is persistently clustered, the location of economic activity should follow the same pattern. The essay seeks to solve this puzzle using the classical production function, analyzing the relationship between the MGDP growth rates and changes in local levels of physical and human capital accumulation. Interestingly, however, MGDP growth and decline are observed to sporadically cluster in annually changing patterns, violating the spatial panel data model assumption of constant spatial relations; thus, an alternative, dynamic spatial structure was created to model the unidentified spatial growth pattern. This dynamic spatial structure successfully redefined spatial dependence and statistically outperformed competing conventional aspatial and spatial panel datamodels. The parameter estimates exposed the paradox; sporadicMGDP growth and decline patterns are driven by continually changing levels of physical capital accumulation. The ability of local physical capital investments to promote or prohibit growth is generated by an unexplained spatial economic process that results in practically all MSAs experiencing years when physical capital investments induce and inhibit economic growth; thus, local economic growth sporadically clusters in fluctuating distributions that accumulate into spatially uncorrelated levels of economic activity. The third essay entails the discovery and analysis of another curious empirical regularity: The existence of a persistent asymmetric relationship between the spatial dependence of MGDP growth rates and rate of national GDP growth. Specifically, the essay provides evidence of a strong negative statistical correlation between GDP growth rates and the intensity of spatial dependence produced by economically decliningMSAs, and a lack of statistically significant relationship between GDP growth and the spatial dependence of economically expanding MSAs. The supposition of motivating this essay is that insights into this puzzling asymmetric relationship can be obtained by analyzing the spatial arrangement of the high and low growth clusters. High and low growth clusters were distinguished according to the two geographic arrangements that produce spatial dependence, the size and quantity of clusters. Our analysis of these characteristics indicate that declining MSAs geographically concentrate into more extensive contiguous clusters as GDP declines; however, high growth MSAs do not spatially cluster in any particular manner. This suggests that the immediate spatial spillover effects caused by adverse economic circumstances are strong enough to depress aggregate economic outcomes, but spatial spillovers caused by favorable economic circumstances do not produce a significant immediate impact on the national economy. Further, we found that the arrangement of high and low growth clusters are statistically significantly different, which suggests that regional growth and decline are distinct spatial economic processes.
Oleg Smirnov, Dr. (Committee Chair)
Olugbenga Ajilore, Dr. (Committee Member)
Peter S. Lindquist, Dr. (Committee Member)
David J. Nemeth, Dr. (Committee Member)
Neil Reid, Dr. (Committee Member)
Economics; Geography; Regional Studies; Statistics
Spatial Dynamics; Metropolitan Economy; Spatial Neighborhoods; Economic Structure; Establishment Size; Physical Capital; Human Capital; Spatial Relations; Regional Economic Growth; Spatial Business Cycle; Growth Asymmetry; Spatial Econometrics

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Citations

  • Chohaney, M. L. (2018). Spatial Dynamics: Theory and Methods with Application to the U.S. Economy [Doctoral dissertation, University of Toledo]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo152541802692485

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Chohaney, Michael. Spatial Dynamics: Theory and Methods with Application to the U.S. Economy. 2018. University of Toledo, Doctoral dissertation. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo152541802692485.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Chohaney, Michael. "Spatial Dynamics: Theory and Methods with Application to the U.S. Economy." Doctoral dissertation, University of Toledo, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo152541802692485

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

toledo152541802692485
631
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This open access ETD is published by University of Toledo and OhioLINK.