Conventional explanations for a state’s nuclear policy (acquisition or forbearance) may be found in traditional International Relations (IR) theories such as neorealism, neoliberal institutionalism and constructivism, amongst many others. Departing from these theories, especially hard realist theories, a new explanation for nuclear forbearance was propounded by T.V. Paul, based on the theory of “prudential realism.” In this modified soft realist version, nations under certain circumstances may prudently forego military capabilities that other states see as threatening (Paul, 2000). The circumstances as envisaged by Paul, relate to the level of conflict and co-operation and the level of politico-security interdependence in a given region. The theory thus differentiates itself from traditional hard realist theories and neoliberal institutionalist theories and offers a new explanation for a state’s nuclear choice.
This dissertation tests the theory of “prudential realism” through a comprehensive case study analysis by using the same variables and definitions as used in the theory. Five cases in this dissertation, drawn from different regions and contexts, proved to be useful tests of the theory with respect to its two key variables, namely level of conflict and politico-security interdependence. The case studies are new and have been rigorously researched to make a contribution to the existing literature. My question is directed towards understanding whether a) states do indeed behave prudently in exercising their nuclear choices and b) whether elevating a few variables (level of conflict & politico - security interdependence) to explain these choices is adequate to capture the correlates of nuclear preferences? In rigorously testing the theory, I hope to ascertain if, as the theory claims, nuclear weapons acquisition or forbearance by a non great power state is determined by its situational context and degree of politico-security interdependence with its key adversaries and allies in its immediate geo-strategic environment.
Based on its findings, the dissertation comes to the conclusion that although prudential realism does present a logical and credible argument in explaining nuclear behavior with respect to its key variables, yet with some modifications, it could offer an even more robust explanation.