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Timing of Tuberculosis Transmission and the Implications for Case-finding Strategies: An Agent-Based Simulation Model

Kasaie Sharifi, Parasto Alsadat
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1396531682

Abstract Details

2014, MS, University of Cincinnati, Medicine: Biostatistics (Environmental Health).
Tuberculosis (TB) infection continues to pose a high burden on global health, and wide efforts are made to combat the disease. Despite the ongoing improvements in global infection rates, the world is unlikely to achieve the target of a two-thirds reduction in 1990 mortality levels by the year 2015. While the traditional control strategies are unlikely to hasten these improvements dramatically, more attention is focused toward screening strategies for high-risk populations. TB transmission is a key factor for design, evaluation, and improvement of such screening strategies. Unlike other airborne diseases such as influenza, however, TB transmission is not directly measurable, and the dynamics of transmission remain obscure. In this research, we study the dynamics of TB transmission across various networks of contacts, and investigate the implications of results for policymaking. We develop an agent-based simulation of a TB epidemic in a single population, and consider a hierarchically structured contact network in three levels, typical of airborne diseases. The model is calibrated to a setting of moderate TB incidence, and is validated against a corresponding mathematical model of disease for deterministic homogeneous setting. We study the dynamics of transmission at the individual level, and estimate the timing of secondary infections from a single source throughout the duration of the disease. Comparing the patterns of transmission among various networks, we discuss the implications for policymaking, and we extend our analysis to estimate and compare the population-level impact of various case-finding strategies for control of TB.
Marepalli Rao, Ph.D. (Committee Chair)
Mark Eckman, M.D. (Committee Member)
W. David Kelton, Ph.D. (Committee Member)
86 p.
Epidemiology
Tuberculosis; household contact tracing; epidemiology; agent based simulation; contact network

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Kasaie Sharifi, P. A. (2014). Timing of Tuberculosis Transmission and the Implications for Case-finding Strategies: An Agent-Based Simulation Model [Master's thesis, University of Cincinnati]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1396531682

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Kasaie Sharifi, Parasto Alsadat. Timing of Tuberculosis Transmission and the Implications for Case-finding Strategies: An Agent-Based Simulation Model. 2014. University of Cincinnati, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1396531682.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Kasaie Sharifi, Parasto Alsadat. "Timing of Tuberculosis Transmission and the Implications for Case-finding Strategies: An Agent-Based Simulation Model." Master's thesis, University of Cincinnati, 2014. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1396531682

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

ucin1396531682
398
© 2014, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by University of Cincinnati and OhioLINK.