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Modeling Impact of Hydraulic Fracturing and Climate Change on Stream Low Flows: A Case Study of Muskingum Watershed in Eastern Ohio

Shrestha, Aashish
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ysu1420797464

Abstract Details

2014, Master of Science in Engineering, Youngstown State University, Department of Civil/Environmental and Chemical Engineering.
Oil and natural gas production in the United Sates has increased tremendously for the last few years. A significant amount of water is needed for the production of oil and natural gas through the application of advanced technique called hydraulic fracturing (fracking). This has raised a serious concern about the potential impact on hydrological cycle, due to water withdrawal for fracking, especially for low flow periods. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis is essential for the evaluation of stream low flow conditions due to unanticipated water withdrawal. In addition, the atmospheric greenhouse gases are believed to be increasing, leading to future climate change, which may alter the hydrologic flow regime in the future and threaten the hydrological and environmental sustainability. Therefore, this study was initiated to investigate the potential impact of fracking and climate change on stream low flows. Since limited modeling studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of hydraulic fracking for watershed scale studies, a systematic review and documentation of existing watershed models was conducted; this was important because an appropriate selection of watershed model for these studies is still a matter of investigation. A widely used watershed model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was found to be appropriate for the representation of the fracking process in terms of spatial and temporal scale. Various future scenarios were developed based on the possible future climatic conditions, which was conducted in two steps: i) first, analysis was conducted for the immediate future by generating a probable set of climate data (precipitation, temperature) based on historical records of the climate data; ii) second, climate change data from Coupled Model Intercomparision Project (CMIP5) using the Max Planck Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM) were analyzed for the 21st century to see the effect of climate change on stream low flows. Analysis showed that water withdrawal due to hydraulic fracking had localized impact on the water resources, especially during low flow period. 30% of the withdrawal locations showed more than 5% changes in 7 days minimum monthly flow. The flow alteration due to hydraulic fracking decreased with increase in the drainage area. Environmental low flows such as 7Q10, 4B3 and 1B3 also varied in a decreasing pattern with increased drainage area. Similarly, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) with the highest forced scenario (8.5) under MPI-ESM climate model of CMIP5 was selected for the evaluation of future climate change in the Muskingum watershed. Three future periods 2035s (2021-2050), 2055s (2051-2070) and 2085s (2070-2099) were assessed against the baseline period (1995-2009). A large change in hydrological behavior was experienced in significant portions of the watershed. Lowest flow was projected to increase across the watershed during 2035s than the periods 2055s and 2085s. Additionally, the 2035s climate outputs were integrated with current fracking trend to analyze the combined effect of fracking and climate change. This particular analysis was limited to first 30 years of 21st century (2035s), and analysis was conducted assuming the current rate of fracking remains intact. The result was consistent with the conclusion from step one (mentioned above).While there was negligible impact on mean streamflows, significant impact on 11 locations (out of 32), with maximum difference up to 55%, in 7 days minimum low flow, was detected. The variation was significant during low flow period, indicating that low flow period was the most critical period, especially for small order streams. This analysis under various fracking and climate change scenarios can provide useful information for policy makers and planners for appropriate water resources management in the future.
Suresh Sharma, PhD (Advisor)
Colleen McLean, PhD (Committee Member)
Scott Martin, PhD (Committee Member)
114 p.
Civil Engineering; Energy; Environmental Engineering; Water Resource Management
impact of hydraulic fracturing; hydraulic fracturing and climate change; hydraulic fracturing and Muskingum Watershed; hydraulic fracturing; SWAT model and climate change

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Citations

  • Shrestha, A. (2014). Modeling Impact of Hydraulic Fracturing and Climate Change on Stream Low Flows: A Case Study of Muskingum Watershed in Eastern Ohio [Master's thesis, Youngstown State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ysu1420797464

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Shrestha, Aashish. Modeling Impact of Hydraulic Fracturing and Climate Change on Stream Low Flows: A Case Study of Muskingum Watershed in Eastern Ohio. 2014. Youngstown State University, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ysu1420797464.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Shrestha, Aashish. "Modeling Impact of Hydraulic Fracturing and Climate Change on Stream Low Flows: A Case Study of Muskingum Watershed in Eastern Ohio." Master's thesis, Youngstown State University, 2014. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ysu1420797464

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

ysu1420797464
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This open access ETD is published by Youngstown State University and OhioLINK.