With the coming of age of the baby-boomer generation the prospects of large numbers of retirements is a topic of interest within higher education. This study examined the likelihood of retirements and turnover due to career transitions of a sample of presidents and provosts for the next three to five years. While it is not uncommon for high turnover to occur in these positions, an increase is expected due to the numbers of retirements of key leaders who are represented in the baby boomer generation.
Research conducted by the American Council on Education (ACE) in 2007 and 2008 revealed that nearly half of the nation's university presidents and about 30% of the provosts were aged 61 or older at that time. The U.S. Census Bureau (2000) projected that there will be the need for over 37 thousand postsecondary education administrator replacements between 2008 and 2018. Hartley, Eckel, and King, (2009) illustrated the concerns presidents have expressed about the potential acceleration of president vacancies due to retirements and the evidence that, “a shortage in the pipeline exists” (p. 29). There is a general awareness gleaned from research and the resulting reports of the existence of (a) large numbers of presidents and provosts at retirement age, (b) increased demand for experienced leaders, (c) insufficient pipeline, and (d) lack of professional development and succession efforts by higher-education institutions. The convergence of these conditions creates the potential for a perfect storm that could lead to an increased demand for leaders for an undetermined time. The issue is not just about the numbers but also about the need for strong and effective leadership requiring unique skills, breadth of knowledge gained from experience, and the wisdom to effectively respond to the historic challenges facing public higher education.
The current research utilized a customized survey distributed electronically to presidents and provosts employed by public, four-year institutions that are members of the American Association of State Colleges and Universities (AASCU). The results included descriptive information about the participants and results of analyses relative to the likelihood of their leaving their current institutions due to career transitions or retirements in the next three to five years.
This study was endorsed by the American Association of State Colleges and Universities (AASCU).