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Visualizing and Quantifying a Normative Scenario for Agriculture in Northeast Ohio

Kolbe, Elizabeth Leigh

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2013, Master of Science, Ohio State University, Environmental Science.
Local and regional food systems anchored in agroecology and regional self-reliance are desirable to many policy makers. On-the-ground changes, however, could be risky and are unsubstantiated without modeling, just as model-generated numbers are intangible without quantified design. The fields of normative scenario design and foodshed analysis would benefit from higher quality and diversified data sources, and analyses that draw on their combined strengths. This study draws together the methods of normative scenario design and foodshed analysis, providing farm-level and region-level views and analyses of the agricultural landscape in Northeast Ohio. Several sets of yield and nutrition data were coupled with GIS analysis to quantify a normative scenario at the farm and regional scale. Current estimates suggest that Ohioans obtain less than 5% of their diet from local sources; this normative scenario shows that much more is possible, not only in rural areas, but with high yielding designs on the agricultural periphery. Results from the normative scenario analysis predicted that regional yield of fruits, vegetables, and grains could range from 3.31e10 kg to 5.38e10 kg, based on yield data sources and land use assumptions. Total calories were predicted to range from 9.22e12 kcal to 1.55e13 kcal. This means Northeast Ohio could potentially support the fruit, vegetable, grain, and pulse needs, or 1,649 calories per day, of between 19.9 million and 33.6 million people in a re-designed production system. The normative scenario was also compared with a baseline scenario using actual 2007 production data for Northeast Ohio, and alternative estimate and measurement methods. Results show that the normative scenario could produce more calories than the baseline scenario, while providing a more diverse nutritional profile even if the most conservative yields are assumed. The normative scenario Human Nutrition Equivalents (HNE) are also higher than those of Peters et al. (2005, 2007), whose initial study on the foodshed in New York State estimated that agricultural land there could support 34% of the state’s population within an average distance of 49km. This calculation, however, is rough due to variations in crops included for each study. The high production areas in the normative scenario also showed no significant correlation with the Agroecosystem Health Index (AHI) (Vadrevu et al. 2008) in a sub-regional case study. The AHI is a measure of productivity, stability, sustainability, and equity (Conway 1987). It is calculated from the values of three biophysical and three socioeconomic variables. The normative scenario suitability criteria are hypothesized to predict potential production of plant based dietary requirements based on soil class, urban classification, current land use, and land contiguity; the modeled outcome only estimates the potential “productivity” property of agroecosystem health. What can be inferred from this result, however, is that in areas where the AHI and normative scenario values diverge (especially if normative scenario production potential values are high and the AHI is currently low), opportunities exist to enhance at least productivity and possibly all four properties of agroecosystem health, including stability, sustainability, and equity, because enhancement of these properties is considered in the design of the normative scenario, though they are not measured in the model output.
Casey Hoy, PhD (Advisor)
Katherine Bennett, MLA (Committee Member)
John Cardina, PhD (Committee Member)
194 p.

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Kolbe, E. L. (2013). Visualizing and Quantifying a Normative Scenario for Agriculture in Northeast Ohio [Master's thesis, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1366553296

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Kolbe, Elizabeth. Visualizing and Quantifying a Normative Scenario for Agriculture in Northeast Ohio. 2013. Ohio State University, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1366553296.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Kolbe, Elizabeth. "Visualizing and Quantifying a Normative Scenario for Agriculture in Northeast Ohio." Master's thesis, Ohio State University, 2013. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1366553296

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)