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Brunett Dissertation FINAL.pdf (5.69 MB)

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The Assessment of Low Probability Containment Failure Modes Using Dynamic PRA

Brunett, Acacia Joann
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1373995939

Abstract Details

2013, Doctor of Philosophy, Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering.
Although low probability containment failure modes in nuclear power plants may lead to large releases of radioactive material, these modes are typically crudely modeled in system level codes and have large associated uncertainties. Conventional risk assessment techniques (i.e. the fault-tree/event-tree methodology) are capable of accounting for these failure modes to some degree, however, they require the analyst to pre-specify the ordering of events, which can vary within the range of uncertainty of the phenomena. More recently, dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) techniques have been developed which remove the dependency on the analyst. Through DPRA, it is now possible to perform a mechanistic and consistent analysis of low probability phenomena, with the timing of the possible events determined by the computational model simulating the reactor behavior. The purpose of this work is to utilize DPRA tools to assess low probability containment failure modes and the driving mechanisms. Particular focus is given to the risk-dominant containment failure modes considered in NUREG-1150, which has long been the standard for PRA techniques. More specifically, this work focuses on the low probability phenomena occurring during a station blackout (SBO) with late power recovery in the Zion Nuclear Power Plant, a Westinghouse pressurized water reactor (PWR). Subsequent to the major risk study performed in NUREG-1150, significant experimentation and modeling regarding the mechanisms driving containment failure modes have been performed. In light of this improved understanding, NUREG-1150 containment failure modes are reviewed in this work using the current state of knowledge. For some unresolved mechanisms, such as containment loading from high pressure melt ejection and combustion events, additional analyses are performed using the accident simulation tool MELCOR to explore the bounding containment loads for realistic scenarios. A dynamic treatment in the characterization of combustible gas ignition is also presented in this work. In most risk studies, combustion is treated simplistically in that it is assumed an ignition occurs if the gas mixture achieves a concentration favorable for ignition under the premise that an adequate ignition source is available. However, the criteria affecting ignition (such as the magnitude, location and frequency of the ignition sources) are complicated. This work demonstrates a technique for characterizing the properties of an ignition source to determine a probability of ignition. The ignition model developed in this work and implemented within a dynamic framework is utilized to analyze the implications and risk significance of late combustion events. This work also explores the feasibility of using dynamic event trees (DETs) with a deterministic sampling approach to analyze low probability phenomena. The flexibility of this approach is demonstrated through the rediscretization of containment fragility curves used in construction of the DET to show convergence to a true solution. Such a rediscretization also reduces the computational burden introduced through extremely fine fragility curve discretization by subsequent refinement of fragility curve regions of interest. Another advantage of the approach is the ability to perform sensitivity studies on the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) used to determine branching probabilities without the need for rerunning the simulation code. Through review of the NUREG-1150 containment failure modes using the current state of knowledge, it is found that some failure modes, such as Alpha and rocket, can be excluded from further studies; other failure modes, such as failure to isolate, bypass, high pressure melt ejection (HPME), combustion-induced failure and overpressurization are still concerns to varying degrees. As part of this analysis, scoping studies performed in MELCOR show that HPME and the resulting direct containment heating (DCH) do not impose a significant threat to containment integrity. Additional scoping studies regarding the effect of recovery actions on in-vessel hydrogen generation show that reflooding a partially degraded core do not significantly affect hydrogen generation in-vessel, and the NUREG-1150 assumption that insufficient hydrogen is generated in-vessel to produce an energetic deflagration is confirmed. The DET analyses performed in this work show that very late power recovery produces the potential for very energetic combustion events which are capable of failing containment with a non-negligible probability, and that containment cooling systems have a significant impact on core concrete attack, and therefore combustible gas generation ex-vessel. Ultimately, the overall risk of combustion-induced containment failure is low, but its conditional likelihood can have a significant effect on accident mitigation strategies. It is also shown in this work that DETs are particularly well suited to examine low probability events because of their ability to rediscretize CDFs and observe solution convergence.
Tunc Aldemir (Advisor)
Richard Denning (Committee Member)
Carol Smidts (Committee Member)
257 p.
Nuclear Engineering
containment failure; combustion; deflagration; dynamic PRA

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Brunett, A. J. (2013). The Assessment of Low Probability Containment Failure Modes Using Dynamic PRA [Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1373995939

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Brunett, Acacia. The Assessment of Low Probability Containment Failure Modes Using Dynamic PRA. 2013. Ohio State University, Doctoral dissertation. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1373995939.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Brunett, Acacia. "The Assessment of Low Probability Containment Failure Modes Using Dynamic PRA." Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University, 2013. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1373995939

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1373995939
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This open access ETD is published by The Ohio State University and OhioLINK.