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Rosile Final Dissertation.ohio_link.pdf (6.36 MB)

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Modeling Biotic and Abiotic Drivers of Public Health Risk from West Nile Virus in Ohio, 2002-2006

Rosile, Paul A
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1405380213

Abstract Details

2014, Doctor of Philosophy, Ohio State University, Public Health.
West Nile virus (WNV) disease in humans causes systemic febrile illness, meningoencephalitis, and death. The WNV, a reemerging pathogen, found its way to New York City, United States of America (U.S.), from the Mediterranean region in Europe in 1999 causing a countrywide epizootic and epidemic by 2003, and by 2012, leaving a reported 37,088 total human cases, 16,196 neuroinvasive cases, 1474 deaths, with an average case fatality rate of 10% in its wake. From 2002-2006, Ohio reported 669 human cases, 487 neuroinvasive cases, and 47 deaths, 5536 WNV positive mosquito pools, and 1328 WNV total positive dead birds. This study used captured data from this time frame to address the gap in translational research between mosquito control theoreticians and practitioners for better understanding, preventing, and controlling WNV transmission hazards and risks to humans, by developing a practical predictive model to be used in their mosquito control programs. Time-delayed indices were constructed as time periods relative to the week mosquitoes were trapped (weeks before and during the trapping week) to reach this goal. Temperature (T), weekly cumulative precipitation (CP), and the Palmer Index (PDI) informed these indices that estimated the temporal position of phases of the mosquito life cycle and the ecological conditions necessary for the development within these phases in relation to the trapping week. Descriptive statistical tools were used to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of: 1) T, CP, and the PDI relative to documented WNV mosquito infection; and, 2) reported human WNV disease, WNV positive bird deaths, mosquito infection rates (IRs), and mosquito density (abundance), by week, year and Ohio County, and within the broader context of the U.S.. Regression analyses were performed using these same indices as predictor variables with mosquito IRs as the outcome to determine the biological and meteorological drivers underlying WNV infections in mosquitoes, and using mosquito IRs as the predictor variable with human WNV case onsets as the outcome. A mathematical model (MM) was developed, evaluated and calibrated at the state and county levels using independent datasets from different years, by integrating functions containing the statistically significant meteorological drivers of WNV disease transmission, which resulted from the regression analysis and literature parameter values, into differential equations in order to gain insight into the biological processes fundamental to increased WNV infection in mosquitoes. The public health implications of this study should be realized with continued research on connecting the descriptive, statistical and mathematical model outcomes to real-life applications of mosquito vector control. The knowledge gained from continuing this translational research at the county level should improve the predictive capacity of the modeling in order to cost-effectively reduce WNV transmission hazards and public health risks
Michael Bisesi, PhD (Committee Chair)
325 p.
Environmental Health
West Nile Virus risk, descriptive models, statistical models, mathematical predictive models, translational to mosquito control practice

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Rosile, P. A. (2014). Modeling Biotic and Abiotic Drivers of Public Health Risk from West Nile Virus in Ohio, 2002-2006 [Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1405380213

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Rosile, Paul. Modeling Biotic and Abiotic Drivers of Public Health Risk from West Nile Virus in Ohio, 2002-2006 . 2014. Ohio State University, Doctoral dissertation. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1405380213.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Rosile, Paul. "Modeling Biotic and Abiotic Drivers of Public Health Risk from West Nile Virus in Ohio, 2002-2006 ." Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University, 2014. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1405380213

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1405380213
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This open access ETD is published by The Ohio State University and OhioLINK.