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THERP Rev MS FORMAT 4.4.pdf (1.55 MB)

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An assessment of the scope of a full validation of the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) in a digital nuclear power plant simulator

Shirley, Rachel Benish
http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8460-4562
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1415989024

Abstract Details

2015, Master of Science, Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering.
Science-based Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) seeks to experimentally validate HRA methods in simulator studies. Emphasis is on validating the internal components of the HRA method, rather than the validity and consistency of the final results of the method. This thesis is an assessment of the requirements for a simulator study validation of the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP), a foundational HRA method. The aspects requiring validation include the tables of Human Error Probabilities (HEPs), the treatment of stress, and the treatment of dependence between tasks. We estimate the sample size, n, required to obtain statistically significant error rates for validating HEP values, and the number of observations, m, that constitute one observed error rate for each HEP value. As m tends to be very high (due to the low error rates), two methods are introduced for estimating the mean error rate using fewer observations. The first method uses the median error rate, and the second method is a Bayesian estimator of the error rate based on the observed errors and the number of observations. Both methods are tested using computer-generated data. A pilot experiment conducted in The Ohio State University’s Nuclear Power Plant Simulator Facility is discussed. In the experiment, student operators perform a maintenance task in a BWR simulator. Errors are recorded, and error rates are compared to the THERP-predicted error rates. While the observed error rates are generally consistent with the THERP HEPs, further study is needed to provide confidence in these results as the pilot study sample size is small. Sample size calculations indicate that a full-scope THERP validation study would be a substantial but potentially feasible undertaking; forty hours of observation would provide sufficient data for a preliminary study, and observing 101 operators for twenty hours each would provide data for a full validation experiment.
Carol Smidts, Dr (Advisor)
Tunc Aldemir, Dr (Committee Member)
94 p.
Nuclear Engineering
Human Reliability Analysis, SImulator, Nuclear Power, THERP, Validation

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Shirley, R. B. (2015). An assessment of the scope of a full validation of the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) in a digital nuclear power plant simulator [Master's thesis, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1415989024

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Shirley, Rachel. An assessment of the scope of a full validation of the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) in a digital nuclear power plant simulator. 2015. Ohio State University, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1415989024.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Shirley, Rachel. "An assessment of the scope of a full validation of the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) in a digital nuclear power plant simulator." Master's thesis, Ohio State University, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1415989024

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1415989024
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