Skip to Main Content
 

Global Search Box

 
 
 
 

Files

File List


msthesis3a.pdf (6.7 MB)

ETD Abstract Container

Abstract Header

On ENSO-Modified Hurricane Formation in the North Atlantic

Welty, Joshua Stephen
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1428596554

Abstract Details

2015, Master of Science, Ohio State University, Atmospheric Sciences.
A variety of statistical studies have been performed in past years identifying the variables that exhibit the greatest efficacy in determining whether or not a cloud cluster over the north Atlantic basin will form into a hurricane. An oft-used statistical model employed to assess the relative power of variables in distinguishing between cloud cluster lysis or further development into a hurricane (two simple outcomes) is linear discriminant analysis (LDA) which computes coefficients for each predictor taken from a selected predictor set. LDA maintains a wide range of applications across a breadth of disciplines. The LDA-derived coefficients are based on the variance of each predictor correlated with the two different classifications: 1) development (into a hurricane) and 2) nondevelopment. A higher magnitude coefficient for a discrete variable indicates enhanced power in discriminating between development or nondevelopment. The specific question addressed in this study lies at the interface between the behavior of cloud clusters and ENSO-modified (El Niño - Southern Oscillation, or colloquially, El Niño) activity over the north Atlantic. The study is designed to determine if the power of certain variables to discriminate between subsequent cloud cluster outcomes over the north Atlantic basin changes in connection to a transition in phase of ENSO. In other words, the study addresses whether or not the most effective discriminators during El Niño years are the same as the most effective discriminators during La Niña or neutral years. In this study, an additional model employed to determine the maximum achievable potential intensity (MPI) of certain storms is utilized in a variety of case studies to determine if it is a satisfactory indicator of subsequent intensification or lack thereof. Low-level vorticity in general is the highest-ranked discriminant across all seasons. SST and Coriolis also significantly affect cloud cluster outcomes. MPI, in nascent formation phases, is not a reliable predictor. Vorticity stretching is of highly variable significance which is dependent upon ENSO phase and the time until genesis. Future studies examining ENSO effects on formation processes could benefit greatly by the use of dynamic models - such as shallow water primitive equation (SWPE) models - in the simulation of upper-level conditions.
Jay Hobgood (Advisor)
Alvaro Montenegro (Committee Member)
Jeffrey Rogers (Committee Member)
199 p.
Atmospheric Sciences
tropical cyclogenesis; discriminant analysis; ENSO

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Welty, J. S. (2015). On ENSO-Modified Hurricane Formation in the North Atlantic [Master's thesis, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1428596554

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Welty, Joshua. On ENSO-Modified Hurricane Formation in the North Atlantic . 2015. Ohio State University, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1428596554.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Welty, Joshua. "On ENSO-Modified Hurricane Formation in the North Atlantic ." Master's thesis, Ohio State University, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1428596554

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1428596554
648
© 2015, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by The Ohio State University and OhioLINK.