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Statistical Methods for Network Epidemic Models

Burch, Mark G
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1471613656

Abstract Details

2016, Doctor of Philosophy, Ohio State University, Biostatistics.
The 2013-2016 Ebolavirus outbreak in West Africa has resulted in more than 34,000 suspected, probable, and confirmed cases of the disease and more than 11,000 deaths. Due to the threat to Public Health posed by large-scale epidemics of diseases such as Ebolavirus and others, it is imperative to study the propagation dynamics of these diseases in human communities. Recently, a novel class of epidemic models utilizing networks of infectious contacts has been proposed to describe these dynamics. However, historically the use of such models has largely been confined to theoretical studies of the spread of human disease. In this work we contribute several new methods to the existing body of work on such models in order to enhance their application to real-world epidemic modeling problems. First, we present novel results concerning the deterministic dynamics of these models in large populations. Next, we study novel statistical methods to harness common forms of epidemiological data in order to model the spread of ongoing dynamics, estimate the level of intervention needed, and quantify uncertainty surrounding these insights. Lastly, we derive new analytical results concerning various interventions and the probability that the epidemic dies out early on. For illustration, these methods are applied to datasets obtained from the recent Ebolavirus outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2014 and the 2013-2016 Ebolavirus outbreak in West Africa.
Rempala Grzegorz (Advisor)
Joseph Tien (Committee Member)
Bo Lu (Committee Member)
199 p.
Biostatistics
Statistics; Stochastic Processes; Epidemiology; Networks; Ebolavirus

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Burch, M. G. (2016). Statistical Methods for Network Epidemic Models [Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1471613656

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Burch, Mark. Statistical Methods for Network Epidemic Models. 2016. Ohio State University, Doctoral dissertation. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1471613656.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Burch, Mark. "Statistical Methods for Network Epidemic Models." Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University, 2016. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1471613656

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1471613656
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© 2016, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by The Ohio State University and OhioLINK.