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Sixty Years of Widespread Warming in the Southern Mid- and High-Latitudes (1957-2016)

Jones, Megan E
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1525542816174135

Abstract Details

2018, Master of Science, Ohio State University, Atmospheric Sciences.
Multiple studies in recent years have documented cooling on the Antarctic Peninsula since the late 1990s, opposing the general longer-term warming trend previously reported for this region. Multi-decadal temperature trends in West Antarctica, in comparison, are more difficult to evaluate, as Byrd is the only long-term station in the area, compared to many long-term staffed stations on the Peninsula. The study presented here aims to puts temperature changes in the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica into a larger spatial and temporal perspective, predominantly focusing on observational data due to the unreliability of reanalyses in the southern high-latitudes prior to 1979. The primary data source comes from monthly station-based surface temperature observations across the extratropical Southern Hemisphere. Temperature trends are evaluated over various periods, with the longest period from 1957-2016 (1957 is the International Geophysical Year), and then a more recent period of 1979-2016 that is split into 1979-1997 and 1999-2016, to examine the Peninsula cooling. The spatial and temporal aspects of this study, with a maximum duration of 60 years and 59 stations included, and its focus on observational data are what makes it unique. HadISST1 is utilized for sea surface temperatures, and the ERA-Interim reanalysis provides MSLP data for circulation pattern analysis; both of these are used to identify large-scale patterns that correspond with the observational temperatures. Our results confirm the statistically significant cooling in both station observations and sea surface temperature trends throughout the entire Antarctic Peninsula region in the past 17 years (1999-2016), caused by an abnormal pressure pattern driving southerly winds across this area. However, the full 60-year period shows statistically significant, widespread warming across the Southern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitudes, including the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica. Positive SST trends broadly reflect these warming trends, especially in the mid-latitudes. Furthermore, we confirm the known prominent influence of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on southern mid- and high-latitude climate variability, the positive SAM trend in recent decades, and the related cooling over East Antarctica. Expanding on these results, when we remove the influence of the SAM from the station temperature records, we find statistically significant warming across all of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, including East Antarctica, revealing strong background warming. If the SAM begins trending less positive in the future (as a result of Antarctic stratospheric ozone recovery, for example), this background warming could become more evident, and could have much greater implications for global climate.
David Bromwich (Advisor)
Jay Hobgood (Committee Member)
Alvaro Montenegro (Committee Member)
191 p.
Atmospheric Sciences; Climate Change; Meteorology
Antarctica; Atmospheric Science; Polar Meteorology; Climatology; Climate Change

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Jones, M. E. (2018). Sixty Years of Widespread Warming in the Southern Mid- and High-Latitudes (1957-2016) [Master's thesis, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1525542816174135

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Jones, Megan. Sixty Years of Widespread Warming in the Southern Mid- and High-Latitudes (1957-2016). 2018. Ohio State University, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1525542816174135.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Jones, Megan. "Sixty Years of Widespread Warming in the Southern Mid- and High-Latitudes (1957-2016)." Master's thesis, Ohio State University, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1525542816174135

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

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