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BradshawDissertation061218.pdf (626.67 KB)

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The Flip Side of the COIN: Insurgent-Provided Social Services and Civil Conflict Outcomes

Bradshaw, Aisha
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1531005517569593

Abstract Details

2018, Doctor of Philosophy, Ohio State University, Political Science.
A good deal of research in the counterinsurgency literature focuses on the effects of service provision and nation-building programs that incentivize support for the counterinsurgent force. At the same time, many insurgent groups also engage in similar distributions of public goods. The overall consequences of these non-state service programs are much less well understood, and this dissertation seeks to identify these effects by assessing the link between the provision of social services and insurgent success against state forces. When the role of social services is evaluated using traditional statistical methods, it appears that these public goods increase the likelihood that a militant group will perform well against the state. However, the observation of these non-state social service programs is shaped by underlying conflict dynamics that affect the ability to draw conclusions about their role in the outcome of a fight. The groups that choose to provide services and succeed in doing so despite government efforts to stop them are likely to be stronger than those groups that we do not see providing services. The endogeneity of social services therefore calls into question the finding that services make insurgents more successful. As a solution to this challenge, this project applies flexible joint regression modeling, a recently-developed approach for endogenous treatment variables, to assess the impacts of insurgent-provided services in the complex contexts of civil conflict and counterinsurgent operations. Results of this analysis indicate that social service programs implemented by insurgents do not significantly shape the outcome of civil conflict.
Bear Braumoeller (Advisor)
Christopher Gelpi (Committee Member)
Jan Pierskalla (Committee Member)
Bradley Holland (Committee Member)
153 p.
Political Science
insurgency; civil conflict; counterinsurgency; COIN; social services; endogeneity; recursive model; joint regression model

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Bradshaw, A. (2018). The Flip Side of the COIN: Insurgent-Provided Social Services and Civil Conflict Outcomes [Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1531005517569593

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Bradshaw, Aisha. The Flip Side of the COIN: Insurgent-Provided Social Services and Civil Conflict Outcomes. 2018. Ohio State University, Doctoral dissertation. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1531005517569593.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Bradshaw, Aisha. "The Flip Side of the COIN: Insurgent-Provided Social Services and Civil Conflict Outcomes." Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1531005517569593

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1531005517569593
426
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This open access ETD is published by The Ohio State University and OhioLINK.