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Future Changes to Species' Range along the South American Coast Based on Statistically Downscaled SST Projections

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2019, Master of Science, Ohio State University, Atmospheric Sciences.
Anthropogenic warming has already altered the ranges of several species. This is expected to persist, and likely intensify, as climate continues to change. Understanding such alterations is important for conservation and resource management efforts. Many marine species occupy environments - such as the near shore or shallow shelf areas – not adequately represented by current GCM spatial resolution. Here we use statistical downscaling to construct future sea surface temperature projections at biologically pertinent scales aiming to generate range change estimates for fiddler crab species (Leptuca thayeri) found along the Brazilian coast. Satellite derived sea surface temperature (SST) is used to downscale output from three global climate models (CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, and NorESM1-M) based on the delta, simple and multiple linear regression methods. SST is the predictand with SST, SSS and alongshore winds as predictors. End of the 21st century SSTs are generated for simulations forced by RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios. Future range expansions were determined by the use of four downscaling techniques selected based on the lowest root mean square error (RMSE). The delta method was performed for each model, and showed an expansion of Leptuca thayeri from 27.45°S (current) to 31.05°S (GISS-E2-R), 32.05°S (CNRM-CM5), and 36.65°S (NorESM1-M). Projections from GISS-E2-R downscaled via simple linear regression produce a range expansion to 31.96°S. Downscaled CNRM-CM5 SSTs based on multiple regression using temperature, salinity, and temperature multiplied by salinity resulted in an expansion to 32.05°S. Finally, NorESM1-M SSTs downscaled using multiple linear regression with variables temperature and salinity produced a range expansion to 33.95°S. This information can be used to develop range expansions for different time periods, as well as other species.
Alvaro Montenegro (Advisor)
Steven Quiring (Committee Member)
Jay Hobgood (Committee Member)
51 p.

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Crane, D. A. (2019). Future Changes to Species' Range along the South American Coast Based on Statistically Downscaled SST Projections [Master's thesis, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1555352153855504

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Crane, Dakota. Future Changes to Species' Range along the South American Coast Based on Statistically Downscaled SST Projections. 2019. Ohio State University, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1555352153855504.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Crane, Dakota. "Future Changes to Species' Range along the South American Coast Based on Statistically Downscaled SST Projections." Master's thesis, Ohio State University, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1555352153855504

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)