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SVD-BAYES: A SINGULAR VALUE DECOMPOSITION-BASED APPROACH UNDER BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK FOR INDIRECT ESTIMATION OF AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY AND MORTALITY

Chu, Yue
http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8671-5362
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1609638415015896

Abstract Details

2020, Master of Arts, Ohio State University, Sociology.
Summary birth history (SBH) is a low-cost instrument widely used in developing countries lacking complete vital registration system for estimating demographic statistics. Indirect methods are utilized to estimate mortaliy rates the total number of children born and total number of children surviving data from SBH. However existing methods don't allow estimation for full detailed mortality age schedule with uncertainty. This paper introduces an innovative Singular Value Decomposition(SVD)-based method within the Bayesian framework, the SVD-Bayes model, to jointly estimate full age schedules of mortality for children and fertility for women from SBH data by single-month intervals along with uncertainty estimates. SVD model enables construction of full mortality and fertility age schedules with a few SVD-weight components. Posterior distributions for SVD-weight components are obtained using modified Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Based on the results from simulation study, the SVD-Bayes model estimates full mortality age schedules by single-month age group from summary birth history data for children aged 0-20 years. The model also produces probability of giving birth by single-month age group for women of reproductive age. With SVD-Bayes model, SBH data from censuses and surveys could be used to produce mortality and fertility estimates for evidence-based policy-making and program monitoring and evaluation. The attempt of using ABC algorithm with SVD-Bayes model also shows the promising future of applying this advanced statistical technique in demographic research.
Samuel Clark (Advisor)
Jon Wakefield (Committee Member)
David Melamed (Committee Member)
48 p.
Demography; Public Health; Sociology
demography; demographic methods; indirect estimation; age-specific mortality; age-specific fertility; summary birth history; Approximate Bayesian Computation; Bayesian modeling; Singular Value Decomposition; population health; applied statistics;

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Chu, Y. (2020). SVD-BAYES: A SINGULAR VALUE DECOMPOSITION-BASED APPROACH UNDER BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK FOR INDIRECT ESTIMATION OF AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY AND MORTALITY [Master's thesis, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1609638415015896

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Chu, Yue. SVD-BAYES: A SINGULAR VALUE DECOMPOSITION-BASED APPROACH UNDER BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK FOR INDIRECT ESTIMATION OF AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY AND MORTALITY. 2020. Ohio State University, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1609638415015896.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Chu, Yue. "SVD-BAYES: A SINGULAR VALUE DECOMPOSITION-BASED APPROACH UNDER BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK FOR INDIRECT ESTIMATION OF AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY AND MORTALITY." Master's thesis, Ohio State University, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1609638415015896

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1609638415015896
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