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Physics_Thesis_4_15 (1).pdf (1 MB)
ETD Abstract Container
Abstract Header
Bayesian Model Mixing for Extrapolation from an EFT Toy
Author Info
Connell, Matthew
Permalink:
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ouhonors1619122381888487
Abstract Details
Year and Degree
2021, Bachelor of Science (BS), Ohio University, Physics.
Abstract
I test methods for extrapolating from limited data through Bayesian modeling on a simplified model of Effective Field Theory, or "Toy." I fit finite polynomial models not only based on data, but on the Bayesian prior understanding of the parameters in this polynomial having "naturalness," or being of order 1. These polynomials are represented by probability distributions conditional on the degree of the polynomial and the naturalness hyperparameter. After generating a set of polynomial models, I perform Bayesian Model Averaging to create a "mixed model," which is a weighted summation of the individual models where the weights are the evidence that each model fits the data and prior. I test how these mixed models extrapolate when compared to each individual non-mixed model. Given a set of models that are useful for extrapolating, the mixed model performs better than a naively-selected non-mixed model.
Committee
Daniel Phillips (Advisor)
Pages
65 p.
Subject Headings
Nuclear Physics
;
Statistics
Keywords
Nuclear physics
;
EFT
;
Bayesian statistics
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Citations
Connell, M. (2021).
Bayesian Model Mixing for Extrapolation from an EFT Toy
[Undergraduate thesis, Ohio University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ouhonors1619122381888487
APA Style (7th edition)
Connell, Matthew.
Bayesian Model Mixing for Extrapolation from an EFT Toy.
2021. Ohio University, Undergraduate thesis.
OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center
, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ouhonors1619122381888487.
MLA Style (8th edition)
Connell, Matthew. "Bayesian Model Mixing for Extrapolation from an EFT Toy." Undergraduate thesis, Ohio University, 2021. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ouhonors1619122381888487
Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)
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Document number:
ouhonors1619122381888487
Download Count:
82
Copyright Info
© 2021, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by Ohio University Honors Tutorial College and OhioLINK.