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Simulating Accidental Exposures to deliberate Intrusions in Pipe Networks

Nilsson, Kenneth A.
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1091122400

Abstract Details

2004, MS, University of Cincinnati, Engineering : Environmental Engineering.
Water distribution systems are vulnerable to a full range of terrorist threats including physical attacks, cyber disruption and biological contamination. In this thesis, Monte Carlo experiments were used to simulate a deliberate bio-chemical assault on a municipal drinking water distribution system. The attack was modeled as a steady 6-hour injection delivering 3,600 g of a conservative contaminant to a single node on the main line in a small town. Migration of the contaminant plume was tracked for 55 hours throughout the pipe network and the cumulative mass dose was computed at five target nodes – one on a looping link, two on dead-end branches, one on a dead-end loop and one on the trunk main. Combining a well-known network solver (EPANET) with a new water demand generator (PRPsym), this exercise was repeated for 1000 independent trials to establish a baseline distribution of consumer dose exposures at the target nodes. A battery of simulation experiments was then performed to investigate how changes in system storage and demand patterns affect the baseline nodal dose loadings. Results for this case study show that the nodal dose distribution was extremely sensitive to the assumed system operating conditions. When comparing different network configurations, the degree of system storage dominated the overall response. For a given network configuration, relatively minor variability in water demands can lead to a broad range in the cumulative dose received at a particular node. This work shows that linking demand generation with network simulation can provide a useful tool for estimating the potential severity of a bio-chemical assault and for developing strategies to minimize drinking water system vulnerability.
Steven Buchberger (Advisor)
137 p.
Engineering, Environmental
water distribution system vulnerability; modeled stochastic demands; contaminant migration; contaminant dose distributions

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Nilsson, K. A. (2004). Simulating Accidental Exposures to deliberate Intrusions in Pipe Networks [Master's thesis, University of Cincinnati]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1091122400

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Nilsson, Kenneth. Simulating Accidental Exposures to deliberate Intrusions in Pipe Networks. 2004. University of Cincinnati, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1091122400.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Nilsson, Kenneth. "Simulating Accidental Exposures to deliberate Intrusions in Pipe Networks." Master's thesis, University of Cincinnati, 2004. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1091122400

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

ucin1091122400
1,238
© 2004, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by University of Cincinnati and OhioLINK.