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What Changes When We Change Our Decision Strategy? A Dynamical Account of Transitions between Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Choice Behavior

van Rooij, Marieke M.J.W.
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1382951052

Abstract Details

2013, PhD, University of Cincinnati, Arts and Sciences: Psychology.
Human decision making behavior under uncertainty is erratic, unstable, and at times leads to very unexpected outcomes (see Camerer & Loewenstein, 2004, for a review). For example, various findings support that people abruptly change from risk-averse to risk-seeking strategies (e.g., Tversky & Kahneman, 1981). I propose that it is precisely these behaviors that suggest human decision making under uncertainty can be captured from a nonlinear dynamical systems perspective. Ideal nonlinear dynamical systems frequently exhibit sudden qualitative change. This change is accompanied by so-called catastrophe flags; dynamical patterns that are symptomatic of an underlying bifurcation in the system's trajectory (e.g., Kelso, 1995). Catastrophe flags are empirical markers that implicate nonlinearity (Stephen & Van Orden, 2012), and are a major focus of this dissertation. A series of three experiments sought to elicit qualitative transitions between risk-averse and risk-seeking choice behavior. The first two experiments demonstrated three distinct catastrophe flags in participants' multistable risky choice behavior: Hysteresis, reversed hysteresis, and critical slowing down. The observed transitions between risk-averse and risk-seeking choice behavior were modeled with a one-dimensional nonlinear dynamical system that entailed two potential attractors—preferred stable values of the system's state variable. The model was generalized to two dimensions thus providing a way to capture the role of reward, an important characteristic of real-world decisions, and the predicted decrease in multistability was tested with a third experiment. The demonstration of catastrophe flags in risky choice suggests the viability of a nonlinear dynamical systems perspective on decision making under uncertainty. The results were consistent with findings of multistability in behavioral dynamics such as transitions in grasping with one or two hands (Richardson, March, & Baron, 2007) and speech categorization (Tuller, Case, Ding, & Kelso, 1994). Qualitative change between risk-averse and risk-seeking choice behavior emerging from changes in the perceptual, cognitive, and neuropysiological processes supporting decision making can now be modeled with a mathematical bifurcation model. This offers the possibility for a unified explanation of the unexpected, erratic, and surprising behaviors that are so characteristic of human decision making.
John Holden, Ph.D. (Committee Chair)
Michael Richardson, Ph.D. (Committee Member)
Michael Riley, Ph.D. (Committee Member)
187 p.
Psychology
decision making; risky choice; nonlinear dynamical systems theory; modeling; phase transition; bifurcation

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Citations

  • van Rooij, M. M.J.W. (2013). What Changes When We Change Our Decision Strategy? A Dynamical Account of Transitions between Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Choice Behavior [Doctoral dissertation, University of Cincinnati]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1382951052

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • van Rooij, Marieke. What Changes When We Change Our Decision Strategy? A Dynamical Account of Transitions between Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Choice Behavior. 2013. University of Cincinnati, Doctoral dissertation. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1382951052.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • van Rooij, Marieke. "What Changes When We Change Our Decision Strategy? A Dynamical Account of Transitions between Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Choice Behavior." Doctoral dissertation, University of Cincinnati, 2013. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1382951052

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

ucin1382951052
490
© 2013, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by University of Cincinnati and OhioLINK.